Decisions on the Fly

If you’ve ever had to change your route to get around cloud-borne hazards like storms or ice, you know how crucial it is to have two requirements met: a solid escape plan, and the ability to fly it. Most days, it’s a simple change in course or altitude to stay in the clear. If conditions were sketchy enough, we certainly have the option to delay or reschedule the mission. But there are plenty of times when weather does shift in unpredictable ways and there you are at altitude, looking for a clear spot to head to. That’s when having a selection of tools ready at launch can go a long way to help you make those changes quickly and comfortably.

Hopefully, we all start out with a Plan B, even a basic one like a turnback for home should conditions ahead get worse than expected. That plan is like a magic door with a key. Sometimes, the door is large and already wide open: That’s the most desirable. Other times, it’s a squeeze-through escape hatch with only one key that fits, or maybe a tricky combination lock. Not ideal, but we can make it a practice of keeping an eye on the door and be ready to sneak out if any concerns arise. In any case, that pre-flight weather briefing lets you form the overall escape plan. So, even if it’s looking comfortable for the entire flight, fuel up and prepare as if you’re going to need that alternate. Maybe it’s a backup route you keep on the spare EFB, or another airport selected for its approaches and services. You now have a door with a key and extra locksmith tools, plus an antidote to get-there-itis.

Storms in Sight

Here’s an example from a flight I made with another pilot from Florida to Wisconsin, a common trip when spring makes it to the Midwest. Such routes typically traverse Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois. On departure day, we noted a tiny line of rain forming west of Memphis creeping northeast towards the route; this was on the watchlist. As it was doubtful if we could get ahead or north of it in time should the line develop, the Plan B was to remain south and west of the weather. We also pre-decided to fly high enough to be on top of the stable cloud layer in Florida and avoid IMC after that, so we could always keep visual contact with any buildups. That kept the door in sight. After a check to see if there were plenty of feasible airports on the alternate route (there were), we departed for the first fuel stop in central Alabama. There, we saw that the line had developed into tall cumulus, but the new briefing didn’t make clear if those would mature. The options were to stop there and call it a day, or get a new clearance to Little Rock to spend the night, well southwest of the weather.

We chose the latter because there were at least a couple hours of progress we could make on the new route. But in only half that time, the buildups had exploded into storms spreading out in all directions, including our way. The door needed a new combination, as multiple heading changes pushed us further southwest. It was also shrinking: Although it might’ve been a good two hours to the south, there was the coastline as a practical limit. We were going to Louisiana. In the midst of that exciting leg, ATC was so helpful – cheerful, actually, probably because this was their time to shine. I could hear airliners and other jets much higher and faster than our four-piston bird working on similar strategies to stay in the clear. It was a great confirmation to never hesitate to divert, regardless of the aircraft type or operation.

All-Season Mindset

The same strategy works to avoid icing conditions, another hazard best avoided by staying out of the clouds. You can plan altitudes to fly above or below cloud layers, and deviate around them as well. Cold seasons do offer great visibility when in visual conditions, making weather avoidance easier. Meanwhile, stable cloud layers common in winter months are also pretty easy to anticipate. But these can extend for sometimes hundreds of miles, making it hard to find openings for climbs and descents – escape hatches might require a lot more fuel. And on cold, misty, low-visibility days, ice near the ground, even if above approach minima, is usually a no-go for light aircraft anyway. Speaking of days, trips after dark take away the visual advantage for in-cloud hazards, requiring extra caution or delays.

From storms to icing, or to avoid turbulence or low IMC—anything that requires flying in the clear—this approach can help with any need to avoid weather hazards. Some considerations:

How far you’re willing to go in shifting headings, altitudes and destinations is ultimately a PIC decision, and that can include not just one, but a number of changes. Having an early assessment to prepare for possible changes helps frame the overall strategy to avoid bad weather. That way, you’re ready. So when a flight ends with the feeling you were prepared, you won’t regret going in the first place.

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Elaine Kauh

Elaine is a professional pilot, Master Instructor, aviation writer and an active speaker at safety seminars, where she enjoys meeting pilots to talk about all things flying. As a skilled instrument instructor, she specializes in emergency procedures while helping aviators sharpen their skills. Her other specialties include tailwheel, CFI stall-spin and high-performance endorsements.

Latest posts by Elaine Kauh (see all)

• Decisions on the Fly - September 2, 2025
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